Victory or Bust?

With Barack Obama on the verge of seizing the Democratic nomination for the presidency, Democrats across the South are poised to retake seats in the Congress that have been in Republican hands in some cases for decades.

Louisiana has already gotten a taste of what is possible via Don Cazayoux's special election win the 6th District earlier this month.

However, a combination of the Louisiana Democratic Party's past sins against and an ongoing indifference to the interests of its African American base, together with a profound misreading of the meaning of Obama's victory by some African American politicians have put even Cazayoux's newly-won seat in jeopardy, let alone possible gains in other districts.

The Opportunity

Barack Obama's presence at the top of the Democratic ticket this fall is widely expected to produce record turnout by African American voters across the country. In the South, in states with the highest percentages of African American voters, this surge in new registrants and voters could be large enough to shift power in a number of congressional districts. Combined with widespread disaffection with Republican policies among whites, the possibility exists that some Republicans could lose their seats in Congress to this perfect political storm.

Cazayoux's victory in the 6th District has opened eyes at the national level that Louisiana is in play in this election cycle. With Senator Mary Landrieu pumping money into her re-election campaign (with significant help from the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) working to ensure that Cazayoux keeps his seat (as well as Charlie Melancon) and, the very real possibly that Democrats could picking up the soon-to-be open Fourth District seat, there will be plenty of Democratic Party money being spent in Louisiana in this presidential cycle. That fact alone will make this cycle far different from the 2000 and 2004 cycles where the national ticket didn't spend money here after the party convention.

These two factors significantly enhance Democratic prospects in the state this fall.

Obama's victory in the nomination process has been built on a broad multi-ethnic coalition that has inspired African Americans and whites to reach out to each other again in an effort to try to get this nation to deliver on the promise of equality and fairness that it has offered but never fully delivered.

That broad coalition, combined with a powerful yearning for change among large segments of the populace, helped produce the record turnout in primary elections across the country during this cycle.

Because of this, we stand on the verge of historic change. This election represents an opportunity for the citizens of this country to signal their readiness for fundamental change, to move beyond the gridlocked, polarized politics of the past several decades, into a new era of consensus and national renewal. Obama's campaign has become the vessel carrying our hopes.

Barack Obama's victory is rooted in and inseparable from the Democratic Party. Whatever faults the party and its leaders might have, it has since Franklin Roosevelt's presidency been the party of working men and women, but it has also been the party working to end social injustice in our country. Democrats desegregated the armed forces. Democrats passed Civil Rights laws. Democrats raised the minimum wage. And Democrats have fought to help those considered expendable in Republican social policy experiments with market ideology.

Barack Obama could not have won the Republican nomination in no small measure because the rise of Republicanism in its southern base has been based on the politics or racial resentment and resistance to Democratic led efforts to dismantle the legal vestiges of racism.

This is not politics as usual.

Misreading Obama

Obama's broad, multi-ethnic coalition is based on the idea our primary condition is that we are all humans and Americans. Unlike Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton, his campaign has not been rooted in race. In short, unlike Jackson and Sharpton, Obama has succeeded because he has not run as "the black candidate." He has run as a Democrat. He will win as a Democrat.

The recognition that Obama's campaign has tapped into a great well of racial pride among African Americans has led some African American state legislators to consider trying to ride that surge into seats in Congress as independents, thereby circumventing a party primary process that they believe is stacked against them.

They are correct about the stacked process, but their proposed response to it will most likely result in Republicans holding their majority in the Louisiana Congressional delegation by shattering the coalition upon which Democratic victories have historically been built.

The problem with the proposed response — prominent African Americans running as independent candidates against Republican and Democratic nominees in three congressional districts (the 4th, 6th, and 7th) — is that, at its core, it runs against the core of Obama's campaign, thereby undermining the likelihood of success for those potential candidates and, probably, Obama's candidacy itself.

Race-based politics is a nasty relic of the bad old days and it does not work to the benefit of African Americans. The evidence can be found in the state Legislature, where Republicans have worked over two census cycles to encourage African Americans to create so-called "super majority minority districts." While the number of districts made secure for African Americans has increased, the overall tenor of the Legislature has turned more conservative because, on the flip side of that process, fewer white legislators have significant percentages of African Americans living in their districts.

Still, there is a real possibility that African Americans — State Sen. Lydia Jackson in the 4th and State Rep. Michael Jackson in the 6th — will run as independents in fall elections. Sen. Donald Cravins, Jr., now appears to be leaning towards running as a Democrat in the 7th District due to the fact that there will not be an establishment white Democratic candidate in that race.

The prospects of these independent runs are not good and voter registration totals and voting patterns help explain why. They also point the way towards reformulating the Democratic coalition for victory in Louisiana.

The Numbers

According to May 8 figures released by the Louisiana Secretary of State's office, African Americans constitute 30.08 percent of registered voters in Louisiana (Chart A). In the Fourth District, African Americans are 30.99 percent of registered voters. In the Sixth, they are 30.69 percent of voters. And, in the 7th, 23.73 percent.

Because a racial appeal would be at the heart of potential independent candidacies, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where any such campaigns in these three districts could succeed. Perception is reality in politics and, regardless of the kind of campaigns run in these districts, independent candidacies by long-time Democrats would come to be viewed as race-based campaigns. One immediate impact would be to reduce, if not eliminate, the ability of these campaigns to attract white crossover votes.

White Democrats are the only white voters that have demonstrated any willingness to vote for African Americans in Louisiana elections (Chart B). Republicans can't bring themselves to do it because of the race-based nature of the appeal that drew them to the party. White independents are not likely to cross over either as race likely figured into the decision not to become Democrats (Chart C).

High African American turnout in a presidential election won't be unusual for Louisiana; neither will high white turnout. In fact, a review of the three most recent state election cycles and the 2000 and 2004 federal election cycles show that turnout in Louisiana is significantly higher in presidential elections than it is in races for governor (Chart D).

In addition, an analysis of state and federal elections in the state since 1998 also shows that white turnout is consistently higher than African American turnout. So, a surge in turnout among African American voters would first have to vault that turnout to a level equal to that of white turnout in order for turnout numbers to reflect the ratios in registration numbers — and those numbers are relatively small.

If African American independent candidates got the vote of every African American who voted in November in these districts, it would give those candidates about 30 percent of the vote in the 4th and 6th Districts; about 24 percent in the 7th.

In order to win even a plurality, African American candidates will have to attract white votes. White Democrats are the most source of crossover votes and they would be disinclined to cross over because of the racially charged nature of the campaigns. Add to that the significant drop off in the number of people voting for president but not voting in races further down the ballot, and the likelihood of success for these campaigns is further diminished.

In addition, while these candidacies would shatter the Democratic base, they would do nothing to cut into the Republican base. Because a plurality will win in the November general election, the likely outcome of these challenges will be Republican victories.

Leveling the Playing Field

Money is not the sole determinant of success in politics, and that is especially true in Democratic politics. Our candidates are frequently outspent by Republicans and their allies, but we still manage to win from time to time because we know how to run grassroots campaigns and, generally, do more with less.

If the objective of these potential independent candidacies is to teach Louisiana Democrats a lesson in the perils of repeatedly insulting and ignoring our base, then these campaigns will be successful on that level. And, it is a lesson that our party needs badly to learn.

For all the talk in recent weeks about the lack of help from national Democratic sources for African American Democratic candidates in Louisiana, the DNC and its affiliates are not the prime source of the problem here.

As Patti Cox, David Gereighty, Gilda Reed, others and myself can testify, national Democrats have taken a dim view of all non-traditional Democratic campaigns for Congress in Louisiana, regardless of the race of the candidate.

The real problem is the Louisiana Democratic Party.

It was the state party that either allowed or authorized its mailing permit to be used in 2004 to undermine Donald Cravins, Sr.'s bid to win election to Congress from the 7th District in 2004.

It is the state party that continues to manipulate elections and processes in attempts (so far successful) to keep the party under the control of a small group of funders, rather than opening the party leadership to the most loyal members of the party — the 45.5 percent of registered Democrats who are African Americans. Their loyalty to the party is amplified by the fact that their support for the party has been consistent while white Democrats have had a habit of voting for Republicans, particularly in Federal elections.

The most recent effort to dilute the influence of African Americans (and, indeed, all party activists) within the party came after the Legislature voted in 2006 to re-instate party primaries in federal elections in Louisiana. While Republicans closed their primaries to all but their party members, Democrats opened party primary voting to people who are not registered as Democrats — those without party affiliation and other political parties in the state, excluding Republicans.

The impact of this is when looking at the party registration figures in the Congressional districts. In the Fourth and Sixth Districts there is racial parity in Democratic voter registration in those districts. Opening the party primaries to non-Democrats has the immediate impact of diluting the votes of African Americans and party activists in those districts because non-affiliated voters in both districts are predominantly white. Factor in lower African American turnout, and the nature of party primaries is fundamentally changed by the decision to allow non-Democrats to participate in those primaries.

The decision to allow non-Democrats to participate in party primaries was announced by LDP Chairman Chris Whittington and former Executive Director Danny Ford. Based on the way the party operates under Whittington, if this matter was discussed at all, it came up during a conference call by the LDP executive committee with little or no discussion.

The best that can be said for this decision is that it has all the hallmarks of a penny-wise, pound-foolish, snap judgment by Whittington and his band of cronies. A more cynical perspective would be that Whittington pushed this decision through precisely to limit the influence of African American voters in the party's candidate selection process in federal elections.

Restricting participation in the party's federal primaries would go a long way towards resolving questions of fairness that are at the heart of these potential party-rending congressional challenges looming in the fall.

The response of Whittington and his allies to challenges to their decisions or even questions about their judgment have been met with something of a "we're in charge, suck it up" attitude.

It's generally not conducive to party building or creating party unity when it's delivered on a personal level. It absolutely will not fly as a means for dealing with leaders of the party's most essential constituency.

The LDP needs to make an overture to the African American leaders in the party before the July qualifying for the fall elections arrive. A pledge to restrict party primary voting to Democrats would be a powerful move to reverse the process of diluting the strength of party loyalists in the selection of candidates for federal office. That will be a significant win for African Americans and it might also forestall a Democratic electoral disaster in the fall.

Election 2008

Victory or Bust?

Will Louisiana Democrats be part of the victory parade or engage in coalition demolition?

The Opportunity

Misreading Obama

The Numbers

Leveling the Playing Field

More to come — Soon!





	Election 2008 Victory or Bust? Will Louisiana Democrats be part of the victory parade or engage in coalition demolition? With Barack Obama on the verge of seizing the Democratic nomination for the presidency, Democrats across the South are poised to retake seats in the Congress that have been in Republican hands in some cases for decades. Louisiana has already gotten a taste of what is possible via Don Cazayoux's special election win the 6th District earlier this month. However, a combination of the Louisiana Democratic Party's past sins against and an ongoing indifference to the interests of its African American base, together with a profound misreading of the meaning of Obama's victory by some African American politicians have put even Cazayoux's newly-won seat in jeopardy, let alone possible gains in other districts. The Opportunity Barack Obama's presence at the top of the Democratic ticket this fall is widely expected to produce record turnout by African American voters across the country. In the South, in states with the highest percentages of African American voters, this surge in new registrants and voters could be large enough to shift power in a number of congressional districts. Combined with widespread disaffection with Republican policies among whites, the possibility exists that some Republicans could lose their seats in Congress to this perfect political storm. Cazayoux's victory in the 6th District has opened eyes at the national level that Louisiana is in play in this election cycle. With Senator Mary Landrieu pumping money into her re-election campaign (with significant help from the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) working to ensure that Cazayoux keeps his seat (as well as Charlie Melancon) and, the very real possibly that Democrats could picking up the soon-to-be open Fourth District seat, there will be plenty of Democratic Party money being spent in Louisiana in this presidential cycle. That fact alone will make this cycle far different from the 2000 and 2004 cycles where the national ticket didn't spend money here after the party convention. These two factors significantly enhance Democratic prospects in the state this fall. Obama's victory in the nomination process has been built on a broad multi-ethnic coalition that has inspired African Americans and whites to reach out to each other again in an effort to try to get this nation to deliver on the promise of equality and fairness that it has offered but never fully delivered. That broad coalition, combined with a powerful yearning for change among large segments of the populace, helped produce the record turnout in primary elections across the country during this cycle. Because of this, we stand on the verge of historic change. This election represents an opportunity for the citizens of this country to signal their readiness for fundamental change, to move beyond the gridlocked, polarized politics of the past several decades, into a new era of consensus and national renewal. Obama's campaign has become the vessel carrying our hopes. Barack Obama's victory is rooted in and inseparable from the Democratic Party. Whatever faults the party and its leaders might have, it has since Franklin Roosevelt's presidency been the party of working men and women, but it has also been the party working to end social injustice in our country. Democrats desegregated the armed forces. Democrats passed Civil Rights laws. Democrats raised the minimum wage. And Democrats have fought to help those considered expendable in Republican social policy experiments with market ideology. Barack Obama could not have won the Republican nomination in no small measure because the rise of Republicanism in its southern base has been based on the politics or racial resentment and resistance to Democratic led efforts to dismantle the legal vestiges of racism. *This is not politics as usual.* Misreading Obama Obama's broad, multi-ethnic coalition is based on the idea our primary condition is that we are all humans and Americans. Unlike Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton, his campaign has not been rooted in race. In short, unlike Jackson and Sharpton, Obama has succeeded because he has not run as "the black candidate." He has run as a Democrat. He will win as a Democrat. The recognition that Obama's campaign has tapped into a great well of racial pride among African Americans has led some African American state legislators to consider trying to ride that surge into seats in Congress as independents, thereby circumventing a party primary process that they believe is stacked against them. They are correct about the stacked process, but their proposed response to it will most likely result in Republicans holding their majority in the Louisiana Congressional delegation by shattering the coalition upon which Democratic victories have historically been built. The problem with the proposed response — prominent African Americans running as independent candidates against Republican and Democratic nominees in three congressional districts (the 4th, 6th, and 7th) — is that, at its core, it runs against the core of Obama's campaign, thereby undermining the likelihood of success for those potential candidates and, probably, Obama's candidacy itself. Race-based politics is a nasty relic of the bad old days and it does not work to the benefit of African Americans. The evidence can be found in the state Legislature, where Republicans have worked over two census cycles to encourage African Americans to create so-called "super majority minority districts." While the number of districts made secure for African Americans has increased, the overall tenor of the Legislature has turned more conservative because, on the flip side of that process, fewer white legislators have significant percentages of African Americans living in their districts. Still, there is a real possibility that African Americans — State Sen. Lydia Jackson in the 4th and State Rep. Michael Jackson in the 6th — will run as independents in fall elections. Sen. Donald Cravins, Jr., now appears to be leaning towards running as a Democrat in the 7th District due to the fact that there will not be an establishment white Democratic candidate in that race. The prospects of these independent runs are not good and voter registration totals and voting patterns help explain why. They also point the way towards reformulating the Democratic coalition for victory in Louisiana. The Numbers According to May 8 figures released by the Louisiana Secretary of State's office, African Americans constitute 30.08 percent of registered voters in Louisiana (Chart A). In the Fourth District, African Americans are 30.99 percent of registered voters. In the Sixth, they are 30.69 percent of voters. And, in the 7th, 23.73 percent. Because a racial appeal would be at the heart of potential independent candidacies, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where any such campaigns in these three districts could succeed. Perception is reality in politics and, regardless of the kind of campaigns run in these districts, independent candidacies by long-time Democrats would come to be viewed as race-based campaigns. One immediate impact would be to reduce, if not eliminate, the ability of these campaigns to attract white crossover votes. White Democrats are the only white voters that have demonstrated any willingness to vote for African Americans in Louisiana elections (Chart B). Republicans can't bring themselves to do it because of the race-based nature of the appeal that drew them to the party. White independents are not likely to cross over either as race likely figured into the decision not to become Democrats (Chart C). High African American turnout in a presidential election won't be unusual for Louisiana; neither will high white turnout. In fact, a review of the three most recent state election cycles and the 2000 and 2004 federal election cycles show that turnout in Louisiana is significantly higher in presidential elections than it is in races for governor (Chart D). In addition, an analysis of state and federal elections in the state since 1998 also shows that white turnout is consistently higher than African American turnout. So, a surge in turnout among African American voters would first have to vault that turnout to a level equal to that of white turnout in order for turnout numbers to reflect the ratios in registration numbers — and those numbers are relatively small. If African American independent candidates got the vote of every African American who voted in November in these districts, it would give those candidates about 30 percent of the vote in the 4th and 6th Districts; about 24 percent in the 7th. In order to win even a plurality, African American candidates will have to attract white votes. White Democrats are the most source of crossover votes and they would be disinclined to cross over because of the racially charged nature of the campaigns. Add to that the significant drop off in the number of people voting for president but not voting in races further down the ballot, and the likelihood of success for these campaigns is further diminished. In addition, while these candidacies would shatter the Democratic base, they would do nothing to cut into the Republican base. Because a plurality will win in the November general election, the likely outcome of these challenges will be Republican victories. Leveling the Playing Field Money is not the sole determinant of success in politics, and that is especially true in Democratic politics. Our candidates are frequently outspent by Republicans and their allies, but we still manage to win from time to time because we know how to run grassroots campaigns and, generally, do more with less. If the objective of these potential independent candidacies is to teach Louisiana Democrats a lesson in the perils of repeatedly insulting and ignoring our base, then these campaigns will be successful on that level. And, it is a lesson that our party needs badly to learn. For all the talk in recent weeks about the lack of help from national Democratic sources for African American Democratic candidates in Louisiana, the DNC and its affiliates are not the prime source of the problem here. As Patti Cox, David Gereighty, Gilda Reed, others and myself can testify, national Democrats have taken a dim view of all non-traditional Democratic campaigns for Congress in Louisiana, regardless of the race of the candidate. The real problem is the Louisiana Democratic Party. It was the state party that either allowed or authorized its mailing permit to be used in 2004 to undermine Donald Cravins, Sr.'s bid to win election to Congress from the 7th District in 2004. It is the state party that continues to manipulate elections and processes in attempts (so far successful) to keep the party under the control of a small group of funders, rather than opening the party leadership to the most loyal members of the party — the 45.5 percent of registered Democrats who are African Americans. Their loyalty to the party is amplified by the fact that their support for the party has been consistent while white Democrats have had a habit of voting for Republicans, particularly in Federal elections. The most recent effort to dilute the influence of African Americans (and, indeed, all party activists) within the party came after the Legislature voted in 2006 to re-instate party primaries in federal elections in Louisiana. While Republicans closed their primaries to all but their party members, Democrats opened party primary voting to people who are not registered as Democrats — those without party affiliation and other political parties in the state, excluding Republicans. The impact of this is when looking at the party registration figures in the Congressional districts. In the Fourth and Sixth Districts there is racial parity in Democratic voter registration in those districts. Opening the party primaries to non-Democrats has the immediate impact of diluting the votes of African Americans and party activists in those districts because non-affiliated voters in both districts are predominantly white. Factor in lower African American turnout, and the nature of party primaries is fundamentally changed by the decision to allow non-Democrats to participate in those primaries. The decision to allow non-Democrats to participate in party primaries was announced by LDP Chairman Chris Whittington and former Executive Director Danny Ford. Based on the way the party operates under Whittington, if this matter was discussed at all, it came up during a conference call by the LDP executive committee with little or no discussion. The best that can be said for this decision is that it has all the hallmarks of a penny-wise, pound-foolish, snap judgment by Whittington and his band of cronies. A more cynical perspective would be that Whittington pushed this decision through precisely to limit the influence of African American voters in the party's candidate selection process in federal elections. Restricting participation in the party's federal primaries would go a long way towards resolving questions of fairness that are at the heart of these potential party-rending congressional challenges looming in the fall. The response of Whittington and his allies to challenges to their decisions or even questions about their judgment have been met with something of a "we're in charge, suck it up" attitude. It's generally not conducive to party building or creating party unity when it's delivered on a personal level. It absolutely will not fly as a means for dealing with leaders of the party's most essential constituency. The LDP needs to make an overture to the African American leaders in the party before the July qualifying for the fall elections arrive. A pledge to restrict party primary voting to Democrats would be a powerful move to reverse the process of diluting the strength of party loyalists in the selection of candidates for federal office. That will be a significant win for African Americans and it might also forestall a Democratic electoral disaster in the fall.			More to come — Soon!

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